⇽ The Optimal Guide to Profitable Sports Bettings

Part 10

Building a Long-Term Profitable Betting Strategy

Part 10 is dedicated to crafting a long-term profitable betting strategy, emphasizing the critical roles of discipline, continual learning, and adaptation.
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Welcome to the final installment of our comprehensive series on sports betting. Over the course of this journey, we've dissected fundamental concepts and advanced strategies that pave the way for making informed, strategic betting decisions. Now, it's time to synthesize these insights into a cohesive blueprint for sustained profitability in sports gambling.

Part 10 is dedicated to crafting a long-term profitable betting strategy, emphasizing the critical roles of discipline, continual learning, and adaptation.

Series Recap

  • Part 1: Basics and Expected Value
    • Introduced sports betting and the concept of expected value (EV) as critical for assessing bet profitability.
  • Part 2: How Bookmakers Set Odds
    • Explored how odds are set and the role of bookmakers in sports betting.
  • Part 3: Implied Probabilities and Odds Conversion
    • Demonstrated converting betting odds into implied probabilities.
  • Part 4: Different Betting Markets
    • Discussed various betting markets, their characteristics, and strategic implications.
  • Part 5: Understanding Vigorish
    • Explained vigorish (vig) or juice and its impact on betting odds and profitability.
  • Part 6: Fundamentals of EV Betting Strategy
    • Combined insights from the previous posts to outline a comprehensive Expected Value betting strategy. Explained the use of sharp book odds to identify mispriced betting opportunities and how to leverage information and tools to maximize betting efficiency and profitability.
  • Part 7: Practical Application of Betting Strategies
    • Delved into the practical applications of strategies discussed in previous parts, using the Optimal+ platform. This part focused on leveraging advanced tools to find and analyze bets with positive expected value across various markets, enhancing daily betting volume, and effectively managing betting portfolios for long-term success.
  • Part 8: Bankroll Management, Bet Sizing, and Gambling Psychology
    • Discussed the crucial aspects of managing your betting funds, determining optimal bet sizes, and understanding the psychological factors that can influence betting decisions.
    • Highlighted the importance of discipline, risk management, and using mathematical approaches like the Kelly Criterion to optimize bet sizing and reduce the risk of ruin.
  • Part 9: Understanding Variance in Sports Betting
    • Explored the concept of variance and how it impacts sports betting results over different scales of betting activity.
    • Emphasized how variance can affect short-term outcomes but tends to normalize over the long term, aligning more closely with expected values as bet volumes increase.

Each of these topics contributes to the foundation of a robust betting strategy. However, knowing them in isolation isn't enough; the magic lies in their integration and application.

Building a Profitable Long-Term Strategy

Becoming a long-run profitable sports bettor is an attainable goal to anyone willing to put in the time, effort and dedication.  It’s a challenging and time-intensive way to make money, but for those with a passion for sports, assessing risk and leveraging advantages in the market, there’s nothing quite like it.

Set Rules and Have Discipline

Discipline is the cornerstone of any successful betting strategy. It manifests in adhering strictly to predefined betting criteria, managing your bankroll judiciously, and resisting the emotional impulses that can lead to chasing losses or deviating from a proven strategy. Discipline ensures consistency and helps mitigate the risks posed by the inherent volatility of sports betting.

Know which bets you’ll take and which bets you won’t by setting hard and fast rules for yourself.  An example of a betting plan might be as follows:

Sample Betting Plan
- Only bet major North American markets (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, NCAA Football, NCAA Basketball)
- Bets must exhibit the following positive EV% thresholds before a wagering decision:
- Main line bets: 1% EV on moneyline, spread or totals bets and a width of 30 or less
- Player prop bets: 3% EV on player props and a width of 40 or less
- All legs of a parlay must be +EV at the time of the parlay bet
- To take advantage of early line movement, I will look for and place bets between the hours of 6am and 10am CST
- Find a minimum of 15 positive EV bets per day that meet the above criteria
- Never have more than 30% of my bankroll actively wagered at any given time

Continual Learning and Adaptation

The betting landscape is dynamic. Odds adjust, markets shift, and new information constantly emerges that can affect the outcome of sports events. The beauty of using a top-down betting model is that we’re counting on the fact that the world’s smartest sports quants are going to figure it all out, and that information will be reflected in the current lines.

Successful bettors are perpetual students of the game—not just the sports they bet on but also the methodologies and technologies that enhance betting efficiency. This involves staying updated with league news, understanding the evolution of the retail sportsbook landscape, and keeping abreast of advancements in betting analytics and technologies.

At Optimal, we do our part to stay on top of the latest opportunities by frequently releasing new EV models and tweaking our existing ones to ensure that we’re finding you the best bets available in real-time.

Strategic Use of Betting Tools

In modern sports betting, technology plays a pivotal role. Tools like Optimal not only automate mundane tasks like odds shopping but also provide advanced analytical capabilities that can identify value bets across multiple markets efficiently. This automation is crucial for maintaining a high volume of bets, necessary to normalize the variance and realize the theoretical EV calculated based on your strategy.

Don’t attack the market with a single sportsbook account and a dream. 

To take advantage of the full market, you’ll want to arm yourself with multiple retail sportsbook accounts (as many as you have in your state) and Optimal.

Enhancing Daily Betting Volume

You can’t bet sports profitably without finding a high volume of positive EV bets, and you can’t achieve consistency in your results without finding a high volume of those betting opportunities.

To maintain and enhance daily betting volume, leveraging a tool like Optimal is indispensable.

Optimal facilitates:
  • Rapid Identification of Positive Expected Value Bets: Scans multiple markets to find bets that offer significant value, far quicker than manual methods.
  • Calculation of Optimal Bet Sizes: Utilizes models like the Kelly Criterion to determine the most appropriate stake for each bet based on your bankroll and the specific risk associated with the bet.
  • Tracking and Analysis: Tracks your bets and outcomes each day.

Community and Resources

Sports betting has a steep learning curve and can be an incredibly lonely endeavor…but it doesn’t need to be. That’s why Optimal hosts an active and dynamic Discord server dedicated to helping our users succeed with our platform and meet other users who share the same goals.

Engage with our like-minded community of bettors who share your passion and excitement for being in the game. Exchange insights and strategies with our group; doing so can provide new perspectives and valuable feedback on your betting approach.

Additionally, continuously consuming resources like books, articles, and betting analysis enriches your understanding and keeps you at the cutting edge of betting strategy.

Get smart on EV strategy - Join the Optimal EV betting community Discord!


Crafting a long-term profitable betting strategy demands discipline, continual learning, and the strategic use of technology. It requires a bettor to be analytical, patient, and adaptable, continuously refining their approach based on performance. 

By integrating the core concepts discussed throughout this series and leveraging powerful tools like Optimal, bettors can enhance their chances of achieving sustained success in the competitive world of sports betting.

Remember, the path to profitability in sports betting is not linear. It is filled with ups and downs, successes and lessons. But with the right approach and tools, you are well-equipped to navigate this path and emerge as a proficient, profitable sports bettor. 

Thank you for joining us on this detailed exploration of sports betting. May your bets be wise, and your outcomes profitable!