Our goal as +EV sports bettors is to precisely calculate the win percentage of any given bet. If we do this, we can find favorable odds and profit long-term.
If you read our post on expected value, you'll recall there is no way to know with 100% certainty what the exact win percentage of any given bet is. The best we can do is create models to calculate the win percentages. The better our models, the more profitable our bets will be.
This post will discuss Green Flamingo's "VS No-Vig Line" model.
First, what is a no-vig line?
A "no-vig line" is a betting line with no built-in advantage for the sportsbook, also known as juice. It's a theoretical betting line that represents the true odds of a sporting event without any markup by the sportsbook to ensure a profit.
Before we get into the math, here are some "no-vig line" examples. Let's demonstrate with this Timberwolves @ Grizzlies game with the assumption that these lines are coming from the sharpest sportsbook.
The no-vig lines for the spread with both sides at -110 would be +7 +100 for the Timberwolves and -7 +100 for the Grizzlies.
The no-vig lines for the moneyline of +225 / -265 would be +236 for the Timberwolves and -236 for the Grizzlies.
There's a mathematical formula for calculating the no-vig line. If you're not a fan of math, skip over the next section.
To calculate, take the implied probability of the bet and divide it by the implied probability of all outcomes.
For the spread, the implied probability of -110 is 52.4% on both sides.
For the moneyline, the implied probability of +225 is 30.8%, and the implied probability of -265 is 72.6%.
No-vig win percentage = 30.8% / (30.8% + 72.6%)
No-vig win percentage = 30.8% / 103.4%
No-vig win percentage = 29.78%
29.78% is equivalent to +236 in American odds.
No-vig win percentage = 72.6% / (30.8% + 72.6%)
No-vig win percentage = 72.6% / 103.4%
No-vig win percentage = 70.21%
70.21% is equivalent to -236 in American odds.
Using the moneyline example, if you find Timberwolves +237 or better, you've discovered a +EV opportunity. Likewise, if you find Grizzlies -235 or better, you've discovered a +EV opportunity.
In the Timberwolves / Grizzlies example, we calculated the no-vig lines for the main offers. In reality, you rarely find +EV opportunities with main offers. The main game lines have the most eyeballs on them, leading to the most efficient markets.
It's more realistic to find these opportunities with alternate spreads, alternate totals, 1st/2nd half lines, etc.
Let's see how this works in practice, using a real-life example from Green Flamingo.
Green Flamingo identified the line of New Orleans +7.5 -190 at BetMGM as a +EV opportunity using the no-vig model.
Here's the -190 line posted on their app.
DraftKings had the line at -260...
FanDuel had the line at -230...
Barstool had the line at -240...
And the no-vig line was -209. A juicy +EV opportunity.
By using a no-vig line, bettors can compare the actual odds of an event to the betting line and determine if there is any value in a particular bet. Understanding and calculating the no-vig line is a valuable tool for serious sports bettors looking to gain an edge over the sportsbook.
Make sure to update to the latest app version for a quick glance sportsbook comparison!
And if you haven't already, you can download Optimal Bets here:
Optimal Bets: Sports Betting
Optimal Bets uses proprietary algorithms to calculate the expected value for Player Props, O/Us, Spreads, and Moneylines. EV, short for expected value, is the most vital mathematical concept in sports betting. When we say that something is +EV it means the bet is expected to be profitable in the lo…